"CONDITIONS D’UTILISATION ET AVIS D’EXONÉRATION DE RESPONSABILITÉ" "https://www.banqueducanada.ca/conditions-utilisation-avis/" "TITRE" "Les prix élevés des logements et l’endettement des ménages font augmenter la probabilité d’un repli du PIB à moyen terme" "DESCRIPTION" "Densité de la variation sur un an de la croissance du PIB réel en 2024T1, en pourcentage" "" "calculs de la Banque du Canada" "LIEN" "https://www.banqueducanada.ca/?p=227001" "SÉRIES" "id","label","description" "FSR_2022_C10_S1","x","" "FSR_2022_C10_S2","Projection pour 2024T1","" "FSR_2022_C10_S3","Probabilité de croissance négative : environ 15 %","" "FSR_2022_C10_S4","Projection du scénario contrefactuel pour 2024T1 qui suppose l’absence de croissance de l’endettement des ménages et des prix des logements pour la période allant de 2020T1 à 2022T1","" "FSR_2022_C10_S5","Probabilité de croissance négative : environ 10 %","" "FSR_2022_C10_S6","Croissance exposée au risque dans la projection","" "FSR_2022_C10_S7","Croissance exposée au risque dans la projection du scénario contrefactuel","" "FSR_2022_C10_S8","Croissance anticipée dans la projection","" "FSR_2022_C10_S9","Croissance anticipée dans la projection du scénario contrefactuel","" "OBSERVATIONS" "k","FSR_2022_C10_S1","FSR_2022_C10_S2","FSR_2022_C10_S3","FSR_2022_C10_S4","FSR_2022_C10_S5","FSR_2022_C10_S6","FSR_2022_C10_S7","FSR_2022_C10_S8","FSR_2022_C10_S9" "1","-10.0","0.0015758000","0.0015758000","0.0000111160","0.0000111160","","","","" "2","-9.9","0.0017495000","0.0017495000","0.0000129210","0.0000129210","","","","" "3","-9.8","0.0019423000","0.0019423000","0.0000150220","0.0000150220","","","","" "4","-9.7","0.0021562000","0.0021562000","0.0000174690","0.0000174690","","","","" "5","-9.6","0.0023935000","0.0023935000","0.0000203190","0.0000203190","","","","" "6","-9.5","0.0026568000","0.0026568000","0.0000236390","0.0000236390","","","","" "7","-9.4","0.0029488000","0.0029488000","0.0000275060","0.0000275060","","","","" "8","-9.3","0.0032726000","0.0032726000","0.0000320130","0.0000320130","","","","" "9","-9.2","0.0036316000","0.0036316000","0.0000372650","0.0000372650","","","","" "10","-9.1","0.0040297000","0.0040297000","0.0000433870","0.0000433870","","","","" "11","-9.0","0.0044709000","0.0044709000","0.0000505220","0.0000505220","","","","" "12","-8.9","0.0049599000","0.0049599000","0.0000588410","0.0000588410","","","","" "13","-8.8","0.0055017000","0.0055017000","0.0000685380","0.0000685380","","","","" "14","-8.7","0.0061021000","0.0061021000","0.0000798450","0.0000798450","","","","" "15","-8.6","0.0067670000","0.0067670000","0.0000930280","0.0000930280","","","","" "16","-8.5","0.0075034000","0.0075034000","0.0001084000","0.0001084000","","","","" "17","-8.4","0.0083186000","0.0083186000","0.0001263300","0.0001263300","","","","" "18","-8.3","0.0092211000","0.0092211000","0.0001472300","0.0001472300","","","","" "19","-8.2","0.0102200000","0.0102200000","0.0001716100","0.0001716100","","","","" "20","-8.1","0.0113250000","0.0113250000","0.0002000300","0.0002000300","","","","" "21","-8.0","0.0125470000","0.0125470000","0.0002331800","0.0002331800","","","","" "22","-7.9","0.0138990000","0.0138990000","0.0002718200","0.0002718200","","","","" "23","-7.8","0.0153940000","0.0153940000","0.0003168800","0.0003168800","","","","" "24","-7.7","0.0170450000","0.0170450000","0.0003694200","0.0003694200","","","","" "25","-7.6","0.0188700000","0.0188700000","0.0004306600","0.0004306600","","","","" "26","-7.5","0.0208860000","0.0208860000","0.0005020500","0.0005020500","","","","" "27","-7.4","0.0231120000","0.0231120000","0.0005852500","0.0005852500","","","","" "28","-7.3","0.0255700000","0.0255700000","0.0006822100","0.0006822100","","","","" "29","-7.2","0.0282820000","0.0282820000","0.0007951700","0.0007951700","","","","" "30","-7.1","0.0312730000","0.0312730000","0.0009267600","0.0009267600","","","","" "31","-7.0","0.0345720000","0.0345720000","0.0010800000","0.0010800000","","","","" "32","-6.9","0.0382090000","0.0382090000","0.0012585000","0.0012585000","","","","" "33","-6.8","0.0422160000","0.0422160000","0.0014662000","0.0014662000","","","","" "34","-6.7","0.0466300000","0.0466300000","0.0017080000","0.0017080000","","","","" "35","-6.6","0.0514910000","0.0514910000","0.0019893000","0.0019893000","","","","" "36","-6.5","0.0568400000","0.0568400000","0.0023164000","0.0023164000","","","","" "37","-6.4","0.0627250000","0.0627250000","0.0026968000","0.0026968000","","","","" "38","-6.3","0.0691970000","0.0691970000","0.0031390000","0.0031390000","","","","" "39","-6.2","0.0763100000","0.0763100000","0.0036526000","0.0036526000","","","","" "40","-6.1","0.0841250000","0.0841250000","0.0042492000","0.0042492000","","","","" "41","-6.0","0.0927080000","0.0927080000","0.0049416000","0.0049416000","","","","" "42","-5.9","0.1021300000","0.1021300000","0.0057451000","0.0057451000","","","","" "43","-5.8","0.1124600000","0.1124600000","0.0066769000","0.0066769000","","","","" "44","-5.7","0.1237900000","0.1237900000","0.0077569000","0.0077569000","","","","" "45","-5.6","0.1362100000","0.1362100000","0.0090081000","0.0090081000","","","","" "46","-5.5","0.1498100000","0.1498100000","0.0104570000","0.0104570000","","","","" "47","-5.4","0.1647000000","0.1647000000","0.0121330000","0.0121330000","","","","" "48","-5.3","0.1809900000","0.1809900000","0.0140710000","0.0140710000","","","","" "49","-5.2","0.1988000000","0.1988000000","0.0163100000","0.0163100000","","","","" "50","-5.1","0.2182600000","0.2182600000","0.0188970000","0.0188970000","","","","" "51","-5.0","0.2395100000","0.2395100000","0.0218800000","0.0218800000","","","","" "52","-4.9","0.2627100000","0.2627100000","0.0253210000","0.0253210000","","","","" "53","-4.8","0.2880100000","0.2880100000","0.0292840000","0.0292840000","","","","" "54","-4.7","0.3155800000","0.3155800000","0.0338460000","0.0338460000","","","","" "55","-4.6","0.3456100000","0.3456100000","0.0390930000","0.0390930000","","","","" "56","-4.5","0.3783000000","0.3783000000","0.0451210000","0.0451210000","","","","" "57","-4.4","0.4138500000","0.4138500000","0.0520400000","0.0520400000","","","","" "58","-4.3","0.4524900000","0.4524900000","0.0599740000","0.0599740000","","","","" "59","-4.2","0.4944600000","0.4944600000","0.0690630000","0.0690630000","","","","" "60","-4.1","0.5400000000","0.5400000000","0.0794630000","0.0794630000","","","","" "61","-4.0","0.5893800000","0.5893800000","0.0913500000","0.0913500000","","","","" "62","-3.9","0.6428800000","0.6428800000","0.1049200000","0.1049200000","","","","" "63","-3.8","0.7008000000","0.7008000000","0.1204000000","0.1204000000","","","","" "64","-3.7","0.7634400000","0.7634400000","0.1380200000","0.1380200000","","","","" "65","-3.6","0.8311500000","0.8311500000","0.1580600000","0.1580600000","","","","" "66","-3.5","0.9042500000","0.9042500000","0.1808300000","0.1808300000","","","","" "67","-3.4","0.9831200000","0.9831200000","0.2066600000","0.2066600000","","","","" "68","-3.3","1.0681000000","1.0681000000","0.2359100000","0.2359100000","","","","" "69","-3.2","1.1596000000","1.1596000000","0.2689900000","0.2689900000","","","","" "70","-3.1","1.2581000000","1.2581000000","0.3063400000","0.3063400000","","","","" "71","-3.0","1.3639000000","1.3639000000","0.3484500000","0.3484500000","","","","" "72","-2.9","1.4775000000","1.4775000000","0.3958600000","0.3958600000","","","","" "73","-2.8","1.5993000000","1.5993000000","0.4491200000","0.4491200000","","","","" "74","-2.7","1.7298000000","1.7298000000","0.5088700000","0.5088700000","","","","" "75","-2.6","1.8695000000","1.8695000000","0.5757800000","0.5757800000","","","","" "76","-2.5","2.0188000000","2.0188000000","0.6505500000","0.6505500000","","","","" "77","-2.4","2.1782000000","2.1782000000","0.7339600000","0.7339600000","","","","" "78","-2.3","2.3483000000","2.3483000000","0.8268200000","0.8268200000","","","","" "79","-2.2","2.5294000000","2.5294000000","0.9300000000","0.9300000000","","","","" "80","-2.1","2.7221000000","2.7221000000","1.0444000000","1.0444000000","","","","" "81","-2.0","2.9268000000","2.9268000000","1.1710000000","1.1710000000","","","","" "82","-1.9","3.1441000000","3.1441000000","1.3107000000","1.3107000000","","","","" "83","-1.8","3.3745000000","3.3745000000","1.4646000000","1.4646000000","","","","" "84","-1.7","3.6182000000","3.6182000000","1.6337000000","1.6337000000","","","","" "85","-1.6","3.8758000000","3.8758000000","1.8191000000","1.8191000000","3.88","","","" "86","-1.5","4.1477000000","4.1477000000","2.0218000000","2.0218000000","","","","" "87","-1.4","4.4342000000","4.4342000000","2.2430000000","2.2430000000","","","","" "88","-1.3","4.7357000000","4.7357000000","2.4836000000","2.4836000000","","","","" "89","-1.2","5.0524000000","5.0524000000","2.7446000000","2.7446000000","","","","" "90","-1.1","5.3845000000","5.3845000000","3.0271000000","3.0271000000","","","","" "91","-1.0","5.7323000000","5.7323000000","3.3319000000","3.3319000000","","","","" "92","-0.9","6.0958000000","6.0958000000","3.6598000000","3.6598000000","","","","" "93","-0.8","6.4751000000","6.4751000000","4.0115000000","4.0115000000","","","","" "94","-0.7","6.8700000000","6.8700000000","4.3877000000","4.3877000000","","","","" "95","-0.6","7.2804000000","7.2804000000","4.7886000000","4.7886000000","","4.79","","" "96","-0.5","7.7061000000","7.7061000000","5.2147000000","5.2147000000","","","","" "97","-0.4","8.1466000000","8.1466000000","5.6658000000","5.6658000000","","","","" "98","-0.3","8.6015000000","8.6015000000","6.1419000000","6.1419000000","","","","" "99","-0.2","9.0701000000","9.0701000000","6.6426000000","6.6426000000","","","","" "100","-0.1","9.5515000000","9.5515000000","7.1671000000","7.1671000000","","","","" "101","0.0","10.0450000000","10.0450000000","7.7146000000","7.7146000000","","","","" "102","0.1","10.5490000000","","8.2838000000","","","","","" "103","0.2","11.0630000000","","8.8731000000","","","","","" "104","0.3","11.5850000000","","9.4808000000","","","","","" "105","0.4","12.1140000000","","10.1050000000","","","","","" "106","0.5","12.6470000000","","10.7420000000","","","","","" "107","0.6","13.1820000000","","11.3900000000","","","","","" "108","0.7","13.7180000000","","12.0460000000","","","","","" "109","0.8","14.2520000000","","12.7070000000","","","","","" "110","0.9","14.7810000000","","13.3680000000","","","","","" "111","1.0","15.3030000000","","14.0260000000","","","","","" "112","1.1","15.8140000000","","14.6760000000","","","","","" "113","1.2","16.3110000000","","15.3160000000","","","","","" "114","1.3","16.7920000000","","15.9390000000","","","","","" "115","1.4","17.2520000000","","16.5420000000","","","","","" "116","1.5","17.6890000000","","17.1200000000","","","","","" "117","1.6","18.0980000000","","17.6700000000","","","","","" "118","1.7","18.4760000000","","18.1860000000","","","","","" "119","1.8","18.8210000000","","18.6640000000","","","","","" "120","1.9","19.1270000000","","19.1020000000","","","","","" "121","2.0","19.3930000000","","19.4940000000","","","","19.39","" "122","2.1","19.6140000000","","19.8380000000","","","","","" "123","2.2","19.7880000000","","20.1310000000","","","","","" "124","2.3","19.9130000000","","20.3700000000","","","","","" "125","2.4","19.9860000000","","20.5530000000","","","","","" "126","2.5","20.0050000000","","20.6780000000","","","","","" "127","2.6","19.9680000000","","20.7460000000","","","","","" "128","2.7","19.8760000000","","20.7540000000","","","","","20.75" "129","2.8","19.7270000000","","20.7040000000","","","","","" "130","2.9","19.5210000000","","20.5950000000","","","","","" "131","3.0","19.2600000000","","20.4280000000","","","","","" "132","3.1","18.9430000000","","20.2060000000","","","","","" "133","3.2","18.5740000000","","19.9310000000","","","","","" "134","3.3","18.1540000000","","19.6030000000","","","","","" "135","3.4","17.6870000000","","19.2280000000","","","","","" "136","3.5","17.1750000000","","18.8080000000","","","","","" "137","3.6","16.6230000000","","18.3460000000","","","","","" "138","3.7","16.0350000000","","17.8460000000","","","","","" "139","3.8","15.4160000000","","17.3130000000","","","","","" "140","3.9","14.7690000000","","16.7500000000","","","","","" "141","4.0","14.1010000000","","16.1630000000","","","","","" "142","4.1","13.4170000000","","15.5540000000","","","","","" "143","4.2","12.7210000000","","14.9290000000","","","","","" "144","4.3","12.0190000000","","14.2920000000","","","","","" "145","4.4","11.3150000000","","13.6460000000","","","","","" "146","4.5","10.6150000000","","12.9970000000","","","","","" "147","4.6","9.9236000000","","12.3470000000","","","","","" "148","4.7","9.2442000000","","11.7000000000","","","","","" "149","4.8","8.5809000000","","11.0600000000","","","","","" "150","4.9","7.9371000000","","10.4290000000","","","","","" "151","5.0","7.3158000000","","9.8109000000","","","","","" "152","5.1","6.7196000000","","9.2073000000","","","","","" "153","5.2","6.1506000000","","8.6206000000","","","","","" "154","5.3","5.6103000000","","8.0526000000","","","","","" "155","5.4","5.1000000000","","7.5050000000","","","","","" "156","5.5","4.6204000000","","6.9790000000","","","","","" "157","5.6","4.1718000000","","6.4755000000","","","","","" "158","5.7","3.7543000000","","5.9954000000","","","","","" "159","5.8","3.3675000000","","5.5390000000","","","","","" "160","5.9","3.0108000000","","5.1067000000","","","","","" "161","6.0","2.6832000000","","4.6985000000","","","","","" "162","6.1","2.3839000000","","4.3141000000","","","","","" "163","6.2","2.1114000000","","3.9534000000","","","","","" "164","6.3","1.8643000000","","3.6158000000","","","","","" "165","6.4","1.6413000000","","3.3008000000","","","","","" "166","6.5","1.4408000000","","3.0075000000","","","","","" "167","6.6","1.2611000000","","2.7354000000","","","","","" "168","6.7","1.1008000000","","2.4834000000","","","","","" "169","6.8","0.9581900000","","2.2507000000","","","","","" "170","6.9","0.8318600000","","2.0363000000","","","","","" "171","7.0","0.7203100000","","1.8393000000","","","","","" "172","7.1","0.6221400000","","1.6586000000","","","","","" "173","7.2","0.5360200000","","1.4933000000","","","","","" "174","7.3","0.4607200000","","1.3424000000","","","","","" "175","7.4","0.3950800000","","1.2049000000","","","","","" "176","7.5","0.3380200000","","1.0799000000","","","","","" "177","7.6","0.2885700000","","0.9664800000","","","","","" "178","7.7","0.2458400000","","0.8637600000","","","","","" "179","7.8","0.2090000000","","0.7709000000","","","","","" "180","7.9","0.1773300000","","0.6871200000","","","","","" "181","8.0","0.1501800000","","0.6116500000","","","","","" "182","8.1","0.1269400000","","0.5437900000","","","","","" "183","8.2","0.1071200000","","0.4828800000","","","","","" "184","8.3","0.0902300000","","0.4282800000","","","","","" "185","8.4","0.0758830000","","0.3794200000","","","","","" "186","8.5","0.0637170000","","0.3357600000","","","","","" "187","8.6","0.0534210000","","0.2968100000","","","","","" "188","8.7","0.0447240000","","0.2621000000","","","","","" "189","8.8","0.0373920000","","0.2312200000","","","","","" "190","8.9","0.0312210000","","0.2037800000","","","","","" "191","9.0","0.0260360000","","0.1794300000","","","","","" "192","9.1","0.0216860000","","0.1578400000","","","","","" "193","9.2","0.0180430000","","0.1387300000","","","","","" "194","9.3","0.0149960000","","0.1218300000","","","","","" "195","9.4","0.0124510000","","0.1069000000","","","","","" "196","9.5","0.0103280000","","0.0937320000","","","","","" "197","9.6","0.0085592000","","0.0821210000","","","","","" "198","9.7","0.0070875000","","0.0718970000","","","","","" "199","9.8","0.0058643000","","0.0629020000","","","","","" "200","9.9","0.0048486000","","0.0549950000","","","","","" "201","10.0","0.0040061000","","0.0480520000","","","","",""