Rapport sur la politique monétaire – Janvier 2025 https://www.banqueducanada.ca/?p=243338 Taux de croissance trimestriel annualisé du PIB Consommation Logement Investissements fixes des entreprises Exportations Administrations publiques Stocks, importations et résidu Taux de croissance trimestriel annualisé de la consommation totale par habitant Achat de véhicules automobiles Dépenses des Canadiens à l’étranger Biens sensibles aux taux d’intérêt, sauf les achats de véhicules automobiles Services sensibles aux taux d’intérêt, sauf les dépenses des Canadiens à l’étranger Autres biens et services Total Coûts de transfert de propriété Constructions neuves Rénovations Investissements des entreprises Croissance observée de l’emploi Croissance démographique Croissance de l’emploi nécessaire pour maintenir le taux d’emploi stable Mesure à pondération variable, secteur privé, EPA Microdonnées, secteur privé, EPA Rémunération hebdomadaire moyenne, secteur privé, EERH Rémunération par heure travaillée, secteur privé IPC global IPC-méd IPC-tronq Biens hors aliments et énergie (27,6) Biens durables (12,1) Biens non durables (8,3) Biens semi-durables (7,3) Aliments achetés en magasin (10,7) Autres (2,9) Fruits et légumes (2,5) Viande et fruits de mer (2,3) Produits de boulangerie et produits céréaliers (1,5) Produits laitiers et œufs (1,5) Énergie (7,0) Essence (4,1) Électricité (1,7) Mazout et autres combustibles (0,7) Gaz naturel (0,6) Services hors logement (28,0) Services touchés par la réglementation (8,2) Autres services (8,0) Services de restauration (6,7) Loisirs et voyages (5,1) Services liés au logement (26,7) Coûts liés au prix des maisons (7,2) Loyer (7,2) Autres services liés au logement (6,7) Coût de l’intérêt hypothécaire (5,6) Enquête sur les perspectives des entreprises, horizon de 2 ans Le Pouls des leaders d’entreprise, horizon de 1 an Le Pouls des leaders d’entreprise, horizon de 2 ans Le Pouls des leaders d’entreprise, horizon de 5 ans Consensus Economics, horizon de 1 an Consensus Economics, horizon de 2 ans Enquête sur les attentes des consommateurs au Canada, horizon de 1 an Enquête sur les attentes des consommateurs au Canada, horizon de 2 ans Enquête sur les attentes des consommateurs au Canada, horizon de 5 ans Taux de croissance trimestriels annualisés du PIB PIB par habitant Population de 15 ans et plus 2024T3 2024T4 IPC global, hors effets du congé temporaire de TPS/TVH (taux de variation sur un an) IPC global (taux de variation sur un an) Biens hors énergie et aliments achetés en magasin Énergie Aliments achetés en magasin Services hors logement Services liés au logement IPC hors services liés au logement Services liés au logement compris dans l’IPC Inflation mesurée par l’IPC (taux de variation sur un an) Inflation mesurée par l’IPC, hors effets du congé temporaire de TPS/TVH (taux de variation sur un an) Cible Calibration principale Recul plus prononcé de la demande de produits canadiens aux États-Unis Effets plus modérés des droits de douane sur les prix à la consommation Effets plus rapides des droits de douane sur les prix à la consommation Calibration principale Recul plus prononcé de la demande de produits canadiens aux États-Unis Effets plus modérés des droits de douane sur les prix à la consommation Effets plus rapides des droits de douane sur les prix à la consommation Canada États-Unis Canada États-Unis Canada États-Unis Zone euro Canada États-Unis Zone euro Indice de l’incertitude concernant les politiques commerciales des États-Unis (échelle de gauche) Indice de l’incertitude concernant les politiques économiques à l’échelle mondiale, sauf aux États-Unis (échelle de droite) PIB (taux de variation sur un an) Consommation Investissements des entreprises Dépenses publiques Autres Inflation globale Biens Services Inflation globale Inflation fondamentale Énergie Aliments Western Canadian Select West Texas Intermediate Brent Indice TEC (échelle de gauche) Indice TEC, sauf États-Unis (échelle de gauche) Taux de change Canada–États-Unis (échelle de droite) Tensions ou vigueur minimales Tensions ou vigueur maximales Niveau actuel Fourchette des valeurs de référence minimales Fourchette des valeurs de référence maximales Volatilité implicite sur 1 mois (échelle de gauche) Taux de change Canada–États-Unis (échelle de droite) Positions nettes d’investisseurs non commerciaux sur les contrats à terme sur le dollar canadien (échelle de gauche) Asymétrie implicite dans les prix des options en dollars canadiens sur 3 mois (échelle de droite) Trajectoire attendue des écarts de taux d’intérêt sur 10 ans Prime de risque de change sur 10 ans Taux de change Canada–États-Unis Depuis l’élection américaine Entre le Rapport d’octobre et l’élection américaine Rendement total PIB Production potentielle Investissement résidentiel Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - États-Unis Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - États-Unis Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - États-Unis Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - États-Unis Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Zone euro Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Zone euro Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Zone euro Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Zone euro Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Japon Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Japon Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Japon Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Japon Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Chine Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Chine Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Chine Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Chine Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Pays émergents importateurs de pétrole Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Pays émergents importateurs de pétrole Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Pays émergents importateurs de pétrole Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Pays émergents importateurs de pétrole Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Autres pays Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Autres pays Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Autres pays Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Autres pays Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Monde Part du PIB mondial réel (en pourcentage) - Monde Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Monde Croissance projetée (en pourcentage) - Monde Consommation Consommation Logement Logement Administrations publiques Administrations publiques Investissements fixes des entreprises Investissements fixes des entreprises Total partiel : demande intérieure finale Total partiel : demande intérieure finale Exportations Exportations Importations Importations Stocks Stocks PIB PIB Pour mémoire (taux de variation) : Fourchette de la production potentielle Pour mémoire (taux de variation) : Fourchette de la production potentielle Pour mémoire (taux de variation) : Fourchette de la production potentielle Pour mémoire (taux de variation) : Fourchette de la production potentielle Pour mémoire (taux de variation) : Inflation mesurée par l’IPC Pour mémoire (taux de variation) : Inflation mesurée par l’IPC Inflation mesurée par l’IPC (taux de variation sur un an) Inflation mesurée par l’IPC (taux de variation sur un an) Inflation fondamentale (taux de variation sur un an) Inflation fondamentale (taux de variation sur un an) PIB réel (taux de variation sur un an) PIB réel (taux de variation sur un an) PIB réel (taux de variation sur un trimestre, chiffres annualisés) PIB réel (taux de variation sur un trimestre, chiffres annualisés) 82.10119.37 77.7298.77 64.3984.40 65.9476.98 134.0381.81 137.3092.64 81.70108.94 109.29102.31 90.25151.13 164.30105.43 94.7981.58 98.1896.63 111.17122.84 99.38133.54 167.63151.36 144.55133.90 177.17116.36 230.45205.80 142.27208.73 134.74130.23 136.53141.89 155.69114.08 343.41210.33 326.57214.38 513.48254.83 378.59184.17 279.48227.75 299.57159.37 168.03149.03 185.50154.03 203.58129.14 169.18119.84 158.28144.12 147.30137.41 135.85144.52 144.25133.91 1.71.81.82.081.982.012.713.134.09225.89121.62 2.21.92.02.082.02175.96109.16 2.31.91.92.071.99803.95135.59 2.22.01.92.272.151.992.893.324.26537.52142.14 2.21.81.92.212.02469.76151.84 2.51.91.92.182.00705.40158.41 3.01.92.12.122.151.992.933.013.94760.20205.94 2.81.92.02.141.99696.79172.41 2.21.92.02.181.99463.16189.63 2.41.92.02.272.181.992.542.983.93478.90214.84 1.71.81.92.121.97446.87240.05 2.01.81.91.981.95508.02245.45 1.41.81.91.881.862.032.642.993.971.441.431.391.901.841.12437.24224.231.43-0.812.481.431.62-0.270.06 1.52.02.01.832.021.511.401.491.971.740.99393.30196.301.40-0.672.371.401.54-0.240.10 1.92.02.11.781.981.881.521.401.881.620.77290.34236.311.52-0.112.281.521.42-0.020.10 2.01.92.01.891.841.982.572.973.822.031.571.722.041.641.29281.27186.521.57-0.212.391.571.440.060.06 2.42.12.21.891.972.401.471.222.431.560.78585.59236.411.47-0.302.291.471.38-0.010.09 2.02.12.01.921.972.021.431.272.351.661.12820.73315.271.43-0.432.291.431.46-0.130.08 2.02.02.01.861.961.982.422.873.912.011.451.022.181.640.87447.73245.511.45-0.372.311.451.45-0.060.07 1.92.02.01.961.961.941.431.012.181.750.95784.39287.191.43-0.432.301.431.54-0.180.06 1.92.02.11.991.971.871.280.832.111.631.01422.49269.681.28-0.702.211.281.44-0.220.06 1.92.12.11.891.971.932.232.913.571.861.290.732.021.621.07429.71256.081.29-0.702.221.291.43-0.220.08 2.22.12.21.931.932.171.360.962.021.501.31369.76246.181.36-0.242.111.361.32-0.030.07 2.22.12.11.911.922.251.561.331.791.541.30451.47258.451.560.412.111.561.360.160.05 2.42.12.01.931.931.942.492.943.922.401.731.361.871.571.09430.85216.371.730.532.291.731.390.280.07 2.21.91.91.931.972.161.661.221.931.671.21295.40205.401.660.262.321.661.480.130.07 0.91.81.81.772.010.891.150.751.691.491.03188.92298.631.15-0.942.141.151.32-0.260.09 -0.21.91.81.451.261.982.753.013.25-0.220.440.311.310.960.85171.18315.470.44-2.101.660.440.85-0.750.30 -0.41.71.61.031.89-0.370.460.090.610.970.90205.18367.380.46-2.251.780.460.85-0.770.34 0.71.81.81.121.880.660.720.270.990.940.83184.82298.730.72-1.511.800.720.83-0.510.38 0.11.81.61.901.141.872.222.953.550.150.910.390.461.181.18177.11288.000.91-1.061.860.911.04-0.460.31 0.11.81.61.321.920.151.17-0.170.461.390.37207.34270.201.17-0.431.941.171.22-0.380.31 0.51.91.71.381.930.511.27-0.310.841.470.21209.19256.801.27-0.422.091.271.30-0.330.28 0.72.01.81.811.441.972.863.003.120.661.14-0.280.841.390.23216.75260.991.14-0.642.021.141.23-0.390.28 1.02.01.81.451.990.951.15-0.291.301.430.25215.61332.971.15-0.531.981.151.26-0.400.27 0.72.01.71.582.030.731.33-0.271.071.520.23302.41252.161.33-0.122.031.331.34-0.310.29 1.02.11.82.281.711.892.102.993.731.021.590.911.371.681.41232.77247.881.590.482.141.591.49-0.160.26 1.12.11.91.731.941.091.850.940.761.711.11113.73191.671.850.872.331.851.520.070.25 2.22.22.22.041.962.202.671.330.912.200.94144.46195.042.672.342.842.671.910.470.29 3.42.22.42.782.162.023.073.003.113.393.671.621.823.160.74147.95185.243.674.113.473.672.750.830.11 3.62.52.82.262.103.604.111.982.363.580.95151.99167.244.115.113.624.113.130.920.06 3.12.52.82.462.183.064.331.902.203.890.89152.27161.504.335.393.804.333.420.840.08 3.72.83.23.032.582.273.723.063.093.724.512.162.813.970.71176.55176.244.515.464.034.513.490.830.20 4.12.93.42.572.264.094.612.963.033.991.57121.75198.564.615.564.134.613.520.860.23 4.43.03.52.652.294.384.763.363.264.041.88159.03181.524.766.084.104.763.570.870.33 4.73.03.53.752.782.334.894.123.544.655.364.053.254.472.05172.97178.275.367.364.365.363.951.030.38 4.73.13.64.403.262.592.972.334.725.974.873.094.942.61149.61200.275.978.254.845.974.371.120.45 4.83.44.04.443.222.653.312.304.806.184.963.405.242.62114.53240.006.188.515.016.184.631.100.46 100.005.13.74.33.803.352.195.074.623.235.146.315.113.545.412.27143.81215.364.023.740.78-0.43-0.076.318.785.076.314.761.010.543.363.711.98 3.063.432.317.605.74.04.54.723.362.843.612.295.696.595.873.915.652.72167.54175.716.599.565.106.594.961.030.63 6.74.45.04.642.516.666.977.444.655.632.96165.47304.316.9710.585.166.974.961.280.724.203.715.27 3.984.283.85102.986.84.85.45.373.642.624.774.502.436.825.024.006.776.707.444.625.353.48127.09297.082.481.900.72-0.300.166.709.705.206.704.711.200.78 7.75.15.65.143.282.564.742.637.736.808.055.205.193.75195.28273.046.809.865.276.804.571.400.854.664.542.457.51 6.234.774.258.15.25.75.453.362.514.962.688.137.258.645.335.323.73229.90267.287.2510.705.537.254.681.740.88 103.747.65.25.65.583.472.644.195.002.707.115.223.447.596.768.875.535.114.03206.85294.492.301.621.02-0.16-0.196.769.655.326.764.501.350.935.254.654.01 5.953.633.35.835.064.446.577.05.15.55.563.392.634.952.707.016.649.145.305.364.30203.21232.276.648.655.636.644.710.980.98 6.95.25.54.953.132.544.702.626.866.669.935.435.614.75149.68256.516.668.155.906.664.930.810.9415.155.534.55.994.763.96 4.36.21.71.04.84.91.61.00.22.11.32.6-2.44.07.02.73.81.47.22.92.931.857.035.46.545.144.06102.676.95.35.54.772.952.454.044.332.627.185.143.106.886.4610.625.345.465.02143.63274.831.321.071.090.08-0.926.467.365.996.464.800.750.914.23.61.83.1 6.85.45.54.663.072.314.292.566.806.0210.055.415.204.98152.11316.406.026.295.876.024.570.580.884.13.12.13.14.56.61.71.34.35.51.30.7-0.22.61.23.1-1.54.17.13.14.10.99.63.03.747.554.934.16.235.404.626.84 4.35.61.91.24.05.50.5-0.10.11.51.32.8-1.44.07.22.43.80.59.52.54.667.554.533.85.044.902.926.35.25.34.683.142.494.082.456.325.519.205.344.955.18150.48255.565.514.835.835.514.350.290.883.92.82.23.5 104.285.95.05.04.282.862.393.883.692.246.034.272.893.921.002.935.901.430.431.311.031.725.925.538.644.954.955.29162.73236.902.281.740.860.45-0.775.534.566.005.534.330.350.853.52.42.32.94.55.62.11.54.05.90.3-0.1-0.91.01.22.1-3.13.97.71.93.90.19.52.65.52.90.51.55.24.01.63.21.0-0.70.60.21.11.6-0.1-1.11.51.43.23.93.61.65.22.0076.960.937.94.914.953.29 52.9780.2685.91 49.6476.9382.10 45.5672.8477.84 46.3873.6778.69 47.2973.7778.57 48.1574.6379.65 48.6475.1280.10 50.9377.4182.67 51.9178.3984.03 54.0779.8685.28 54.0879.8684.46 54.4180.1885.92 53.7079.4884.98 54.5780.3386.16 57.4881.3187.63 57.7981.6288.19 56.3080.1386.13 56.3280.1586.12 57.1881.0187.47 56.3079.6886.66 54.5277.9084.90 55.4978.8784.49 5.24.84.74.633.232.733.602.235.201.38-0.031.171.051.635.255.218.504.844.865.61134.77239.865.213.685.985.214.260.200.7553.5276.4182.843.52.12.33.34.14.92.11.23.94.2-0.5-0.7-1.20.40.82.2-2.44.17.11.83.7-0.28.52.76.276.570.644.06.305.392.213.51 53.0075.8882.17 50.7773.3979.94 53.6374.1180.99 57.7177.1483.69 59.1978.4785.09 59.5978.0684.50 60.2179.7286.39 61.5180.1486.61 60.4379.0685.58 59.9678.5985.38 59.8678.4985.14 58.1676.3483.00 58.1676.3484.07 58.4376.1683.05 56.2173.9580.60 57.6675.3982.21 59.8676.3283.16 59.3175.6882.45 60.6777.0583.89 4.34.54.24.142.892.573.422.234.301.17-0.521.071.101.474.304.426.884.514.775.66201.91303.504.421.975.674.424.16-0.380.6361.3177.6984.312.91.02.63.63.65.11.61.33.63.2-1.2-1.30.0-1.00.62.6-1.64.36.52.03.2-1.28.52.86.871.981.250.76.115.492.44 61.7878.1684.75 64.3579.6885.83 65.1380.4686.18 62.2577.5883.29 61.3376.6682.66 59.8075.7281.59 61.1876.6882.78 58.5274.8080.77 54.6271.3377.45 50.9167.6173.69 52.1268.3574.70 51.3666.7472.97 52.2667.6473.79 54.2669.3375.32 56.3470.9076.69 55.0469.9675.91 54.6869.2674.99 58.2372.8178.12 58.6873.2078.65 58.4772.9778.28 59.6674.3779.27 61.3375.6779.77 107.194.44.24.13.792.742.663.543.292.215.093.932.890.83-1.692.524.401.25-0.311.021.011.434.414.466.964.424.785.60104.57227.012.831.470.950.64-0.244.462.225.604.464.17-0.270.553.01.42.53.73.44.51.41.33.52.8-0.9-0.90.5-1.1-0.22.1-1.33.95.50.73.0-1.710.02.47.42.21.43.62.0048.181.551.06.185.133.82 66.0980.4284.93 66.1280.7184.94 65.6180.6184.99 65.7880.7085.12 65.7880.7085.12 64.8279.7484.18 65.8081.5385.61 67.1983.2687.33 66.1982.1686.09 67.1682.5286.31 65.4680.8384.76 65.7780.8684.77 64.1379.1683.12 61.9277.2981.10 63.3977.8781.66 64.2878.7682.73 62.3977.0780.77 59.4674.3077.69 59.8074.7678.37 62.0576.7879.54 3.43.83.63.882.952.643.122.183.401.02-0.981.010.911.463.363.986.103.954.715.34184.08200.273.981.195.403.984.10-0.610.4760.9375.6679.312.30.72.42.63.34.71.21.13.93.1-1.9-1.70.8-2.1-0.41.4-2.83.26.00.83.1-1.79.22.47.831.184.752.96.075.064.143.02 56.5471.6675.32 53.5968.6072.33 53.9568.5672.50 56.8271.3475.30 58.6473.1677.01 59.9073.7177.44 59.0572.5676.41 57.2970.8774.98 56.1970.0474.17 57.2671.1175.23 57.7470.8674.91 59.5372.8376.96 59.4871.8675.86 58.7271.5575.58 58.7271.9975.99 60.0772.9176.84 60.9074.3478.36 58.2071.8376.26 59.1772.6776.95 59.2472.6777.07 55.6869.4673.54 54.3168.0972.66 2.83.83.63.792.762.453.122.212.800.88-1.191.000.671.462.813.265.523.524.375.48161.46217.393.26-0.415.143.263.80-0.910.3856.6370.1074.282.10.62.32.13.34.61.41.23.43.1-2.2-1.90.9-2.0-0.60.2-3.73.45.7-1.43.2-1.89.52.37.839.687.254.54.794.383.85 58.7571.7476.13 59.1672.1576.71 59.9471.7476.29 55.7172.5376.95 59.8571.2975.96 58.1970.1774.79 55.1367.1271.84 57.6669.4274.29 56.8068.2773.20 59.6470.6275.67 60.2071.7876.61 60.2071.7876.09 59.4970.5075.90 61.9372.5377.12 58.3269.5174.14 58.0869.1673.85 58.2969.3774.18 56.5467.7072.26 58.9169.5674.03 59.2669.8674.34 59.9170.6474.90 -2.900.441.30-1.82-0.93-1.88103.593.33.83.53.482.842.653.293.022.205.034.042.75-0.55-4.433.873.300.77-0.620.950.681.523.273.375.313.424.275.48195.31222.073.241.640.740.820.043.37-0.205.193.373.73-0.640.301.80.42.11.93.04.41.11.43.02.8-1.4-1.32.4-1.4-1.20.1-4.13.15.1-2.03.4-1.68.82.57.92.11.63.72.000.892.3431.492.657.8-2.605.624.744.32 59.0669.7974.65 59.1869.7976.25 60.4971.7976.65 61.4671.8076.52 63.2773.8678.47 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