Rapport sur la politique monétaire – Juillet 2025 https://www.banqueducanada.ca/?p=246639 États-Unis ANASE Autres IPC global hors impôts indirects IPC global Aliments Énergie Biens hors aliments et énergie Services hors logement Logement IPC global IPC global hors impôts indirects Cible Taux de variation sur un an Taux sur trois mois, données désaisonnalisées et annualisées Moyenne historique (1995-2019) – Taux de variation sur un an Scénario de désescalade Scénario d’escalade Scénario de maintien Biens hors aliments et énergie (27,8) Biens durables (12,8) Biens non durables (7,9) Biens semi-durables (7,1) Aliments achetés en magasin (10,9) Autres (3,0) Fruits et légumes (2,6) Viande et fruits de mer (2,2) Produits de boulangerie et produits céréaliers (1,6) Produits laitiers et œufs (1,5) Énergie (5,8) Essence (3,2) Électricité (1,7) Mazout et autres combustibles (0,5) Gaz naturel (0,5) Services hors logement (28,5) Services touchés par la réglementation (8,3) Autres services (8,2) Services de restauration (6,8) Loisirs et voyages (5,1) Services liés au logement (27,1) Loyer (7,4) Autres services liés au logement (7,0) Coûts liés aux prix des maisons (6,9) Coût de l’intérêt hypothécaire (5,8) IPC hors impôts indirects Plage des mesures de l’inflation fondamentale, bas Plage des mesures de l’inflation fondamentale, haut Part dont la croissance est inférieure à 1 % Moyenne historique (1995-2019) – Part dont la croissance est inférieure à 1 % Part dont la croissance est supérieure à 3 % Moyenne historique (1995-2019) – Part dont la croissance est supérieure à 3 % Services liés au logement Moyenne historique (1995-2019) – Services liés au logement Services hors logement Moyenne historique (1995-2019) – Services hors logement Secteurs avec une dépendance limitée à l’égard des exportations vers les États-Unis Secteurs avec une dépendance importante à l’égard des exportations vers les États-Unis Tous les secteurs S&P 500 Indice composite S&P/TSX Euro Stoxx 50 Nikkei 225 Scénario de maintien des droits de douane Rapport de janvier Exportations vers les États-Unis Exportations vers d’autres pays que les États-Unis Taux de croissance du PIB Consommation Logement Investissements fixes des entreprises Exportations Administrations publiques Stocks et résidu Importations Demande intérieure finale Stocks et résidu Exportations nettes Croissance du PIB Scénario de désescalade Scénario d’escalade Scénario de maintien Scénario de désescalade Scénario d’escalade Scénario de maintien Scénario de maintien des droits de douane Rapport de janvier Scénario de maintien des droits de douane Rapport de janvier Le Pouls des leaders d’entreprise, horizon de 1 an Le Pouls des leaders d’entreprise, horizon de 2 ans Le Pouls des leaders d’entreprise, horizon de 5 ans Enquête sur les perspectives des entreprises, horizon de 2 ans Consensus Economics, horizon de 1 an Consensus Economics, horizon de 2 ans Enquête sur les attentes des consommateurs au Canada, attentes d’inflation à l’horizon de 1 an Enquête sur les attentes des consommateurs au Canada, attentes d’inflation à l’horizon de 2 ans Enquête sur les attentes des consommateurs au Canada, attentes d’inflation à l’horizon de 5 ans Taux de chômage Ratio postes vacants et chômeurs Taux de cessation d’emploi Taux d’obtention d’un emploi Taux d’emploi Nombre moyen d’heures travaillées West Texas Intermediate Brent Services Fabrication Indice composite Taux historique des droits de douane américains 2 avril 2025 10 avril 2025 – Pic des droits de douane américains de rétorsion sur les biens chinois 27 juillet 2025 – Scénario de maintien des droits de douane Indice d’incertitude des politiques économiques Indice d’incertitude des politiques commerciales IPC global IPC hors aliments et énergie Canada Zone euro Chine Mexique ANASE Autres Éventail des scénarios du Rapport d’avril Éventail des scénarios du Rapport d’avril Scénario de maintien des droits de douane Scénario de désescalade des droits de douane Scénario d’escalade des droits de douane Salaire moyen, secteur privé, EPA Microdonnées, secteur privé, EPA Rémunération hebdomadaire moyenne, secteur privé, EERH Coût unitaire de main-d’œuvre, secteur des entreprises Inflation mesurée par l’IPC (taux de variation sur un an) Inflation mesurée par l’IPC (taux de variation sur un an) Inflation fondamentale (taux de variation sur un an) Inflation fondamentale (taux de variation sur un an) PIB réel (taux de variation sur un an) PIB réel (taux de variation sur un an) PIB réel (taux de variation sur un trimestre, chiffres annualisés) PIB réel (taux de variation sur un trimestre, chiffres annualisés) 28.8 27.8 27.8 26.2 23.7 24.2 23.3 23.9 23.0 21.1 20.3 18.6 17.7 14.9 12.5 9.6 8.3 5.9 6.2 6.4 11.4 14.7 15.2 14.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 13.3 13.5 14.8 17.8 19.6 19.8 18.4 17.5 16.8 15.6 15.5 14.4 12.5 13.6 11.6 11.6 9.9 9.6 10.3 7.9 5.9 5.7 6.1 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.1 7.1 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 73.665.172.61.592.8698.87 93.85100.9988.378.985.6 59.346.355.493.81104.36 94.7498.6871.650.065.7 73.053.967.893.6298.57 100.00100.0072.858.468.2 69.557.868.2101.17103.11 100.2198.4769.155.668.5 72.959.870.298.7999.30 94.24104.7271.254.369.4 64.956.366.894.8399.88 97.28105.6867.756.873.4 66.553.464.21.5100.91102.49 95.5099.5769.453.465.5 64.752.461.889.70101.00 90.4499.0165.853.665.4 64.955.764.991.9988.20 90.7493.9664.255.964.3 67.754.363.295.6697.39 96.31104.5268.754.565.7 66.453.262.795.41106.02 96.57106.1067.253.962.9 68.753.364.4100.07114.10 98.68115.4271.155.966.4 71.553.265.71.4102.75110.32 101.70105.5168.155.162.2 78.257.468.398.59121.90 104.00110.1474.357.166.9 72.658.167.5103.93116.05 98.18113.2175.555.569.3 73.156.466.695.25104.71 94.80103.8574.157.868.1 75.659.066.093.60109.70 96.67107.9773.259.465.9 78.063.671.0103.26106.29 102.24112.9380.361.074.3 80.263.270.11.82.42.72.11.92.081.982.012.713.134.09100.71108.37 2.082.02102.24110.36101.775.489.52.82.72.31.9 74.357.065.53.02.72.11.92.071.99103.11120.81 2.272.151.992.893.324.26106.34117.8882.167.673.62.42.72.31.9 80.869.174.52.52.72.31.92.212.02106.37117.81 2.182.00110.12130.9083.766.174.92.32.72.21.9 80.664.773.63.72.72.31.92.122.151.992.933.013.94112.48121.29 2.141.99109.59122.2383.866.972.83.62.72.31.9 86.367.475.72.52.72.51.92.181.99109.53123.15 2.272.181.992.542.983.93107.54125.4883.367.776.22.92.72.31.9 84.966.472.92.92.72.31.92.121.9798.95122.97 1.981.9595.40119.4477.663.970.14.52.72.31.9 78.670.977.52.61.11.91.12.92.72.61.92.583.561.811.721.41.51.940.641.230.630.91.881.862.032.642.993.97101.54122.84 1.51.52.036.941.228.830.91.832.02106.42110.1373.465.270.71.84.21.12.22.72.71.92.573.420.48 77.770.275.92.03.11.12.02.72.81.92.553.341.452.01.62.236.941.229.430.91.781.98110.24117.25 2.371.91.52.044.441.229.430.91.891.841.982.572.973.82111.17118.9371.568.771.91.63.51.12.42.72.71.92.393.122.40 77.272.375.72.41.41.13.02.72.61.92.922.873.982.32.12.433.141.233.830.91.891.97112.73129.12 2.02.02.340.041.232.530.91.921.97108.60118.3276.474.272.92.01.01.13.22.72.51.93.472.942.23 74.574.175.42.31.41.12.72.72.51.93.552.542.822.952.02.02.238.141.232.530.91.861.961.982.422.873.91107.65117.74 1.91.92.236.941.233.830.91.961.96110.04117.6870.674.273.72.11.91.12.92.72.51.93.622.912.86 67.774.074.82.52.61.12.22.72.41.94.173.484.071.81.92.335.641.235.630.91.991.97109.10114.78 2.611.91.92.335.041.239.430.91.891.971.932.232.913.57107.45113.8870.178.674.82.21.91.12.12.72.81.93.773.104.31 65.578.172.82.52.41.11.62.72.71.93.933.232.992.21.92.436.941.234.430.91.931.93104.88119.72 2.21.72.338.341.230.930.91.911.92106.29119.6867.181.678.02.01.51.11.52.72.71.93.252.813.77 69.772.275.82.82.53.21.11.32.72.31.93.372.563.972.082.31.82.237.741.230.930.91.931.931.942.492.943.92102.74116.010.30.45.30.71.22.9 2.11.82.039.541.227.830.91.931.97103.61115.8834.152.740.81.71.41.12.12.72.31.93.462.683.89 61.075.072.01.40.61.11.72.72.41.96.822.822.860.71.61.839.541.227.830.91.772.0191.34118.15 5.58-0.11.21.940.141.230.230.91.451.261.982.753.013.2559.61106.159.34.220.0-1.99.48.572.871.873.71.1-1.61.11.82.72.31.910.863.2010.09 76.069.273.50.8-2.31.10.72.71.91.910.233.3210.63-0.40.61.840.141.232.730.91.031.8965.06111.22 0.61.01.839.541.229.030.91.121.8884.81111.7277.274.772.71.40.71.10.82.72.11.97.603.469.39 83.583.978.81.31.31.1-0.52.71.81.96.633.608.273.100.10.51.843.841.226.530.91.901.141.872.222.953.5594.67114.364.83.22.60.34.52.1 0.10.51.844.441.222.230.91.321.9298.70106.4785.283.978.70.92.21.1-0.62.71.91.96.473.537.12 81.884.379.40.5-1.21.10.92.72.01.94.932.736.190.40.81.946.341.222.230.91.381.9397.60117.19 3.410.50.82.042.041.227.830.91.811.441.972.863.003.1298.00118.833.21.83.81.32.81.485.984.982.01.00.91.10.72.71.91.96.073.415.61 97.486.886.50.92.31.11.62.72.11.95.672.816.710.81.32.043.241.226.530.91.451.9996.94127.83 0.61.12.045.741.228.430.91.582.0398.17131.1390.896.590.50.62.71.11.02.71.81.95.963.186.67 94.298.490.63.00.61.91.12.02.71.81.96.773.088.183.261.01.42.150.041.224.130.92.281.711.892.102.993.73109.48133.932.81.52.1-1.02.7-0.1 1.00.82.145.141.228.430.91.731.94111.16118.30113.7108.9100.70.81.71.10.82.71.71.96.113.129.21 92.885.493.61.02.11.10.62.72.01.92.272.987.212.10.92.240.741.232.730.92.041.96106.20131.42 2.493.21.82.440.141.232.130.92.782.162.023.073.003.11106.96125.131.80.61.10.82.10.394.1102.094.51.62.41.11.22.72.21.9-0.732.430.67 91.497.893.42.53.71.11.02.73.31.9-1.112.14-0.023.52.42.837.741.238.330.92.262.10106.87121.61 2.92.22.835.841.242.030.92.462.18113.47133.7391.198.398.12.14.71.10.52.73.91.90.011.861.16 94.695.895.82.75.31.11.22.74.41.91.742.231.545.283.42.83.335.841.243.830.93.032.582.273.723.063.09117.48123.290.4-1.40.00.80.30.6 4.03.03.535.841.249.430.92.572.26116.77130.1098.997.9102.13.45.41.11.52.74.31.92.082.232.16 107.698.8102.53.85.31.11.92.74.31.93.212.913.304.33.03.730.941.247.530.92.652.29115.04124.75 4.444.53.03.829.041.248.830.93.752.782.334.884.103.54122.75131.61-0.9-2.7-0.5-1.2-1.1-0.2106.0101.2106.43.54.61.12.32.74.11.92.062.492.98 104.7108.1110.23.94.51.11.62.74.21.93.013.042.294.53.13.626.541.251.930.94.403.262.592.972.33132.37123.96 4.73.34.024.741.256.830.94.443.222.653.312.30129.59129.63110.8107.6112.04.56.01.11.92.74.91.93.803.493.10 107.2104.5106.22.84.66.41.11.52.75.21.93.413.722.016.084.93.54.318.541.262.330.93.803.352.195.074.623.23132.40125.13-1.5-3.1-0.5-1.8-1.4-0.1 5.43.94.816.741.264.830.94.723.362.843.612.29135.94140.04127.6121.5116.55.06.91.12.12.75.61.93.073.422.36 110.994.1105.96.29.21.12.52.76.11.94.123.735.316.54.45.516.741.266.030.94.642.51146.48141.28 4.706.84.65.717.941.268.530.95.373.642.624.774.502.436.825.024.00150.57134.34-2.2-4.1-1.8-0.3-2.00.0101.9108.294.86.38.91.12.62.76.71.93.944.293.88 106.3122.6107.46.69.31.13.82.76.41.94.534.552.377.75.16.116.041.273.530.95.143.282.564.742.63154.87173.79 8.15.26.214.841.274.130.95.453.362.514.962.68154.99156.31109.0126.0112.36.86.71.14.42.76.01.96.104.774.31 105.9128.7112.16.66.71.15.32.75.91.95.144.643.994.107.75.26.111.741.275.330.95.583.472.644.195.002.707.115.223.44148.19150.84-2.4-3.9-0.5-0.4-2.0-0.4 6.95.05.810.541.277.830.95.563.392.634.952.70143.21147.7095.6122.8108.26.86.01.15.22.75.71.95.785.044.35 95.4128.0108.27.26.51.15.12.76.01.95.904.753.946.85.26.010.541.278.430.94.953.132.544.702.62142.40154.85 6.356.95.35.913.041.277.830.94.772.952.454.044.332.627.185.143.10140.87156.10-2.4-2.7-1.3-0.6-2.1-0.393.1122.9104.97.16.41.14.23.61.83.14.36.21.71.04.84.91.61.00.22.11.32.6-2.44.07.02.73.87.22.91.42.94.62.76.11.96.505.144.03 79.8114.8102.26.95.61.14.13.12.13.14.56.61.71.34.35.51.30.7-0.22.61.23.1-1.54.17.13.14.19.63.00.93.75.02.76.51.96.175.394.636.95.46.214.241.277.830.94.663.072.314.292.56136.80158.68 6.25.36.013.641.274.130.94.683.142.494.082.45142.52151.9389.4115.499.76.74.61.13.92.82.23.54.35.61.91.24.05.50.5-0.10.11.51.32.8-1.44.07.22.43.89.52.50.54.64.82.76.21.95.004.902.94 91.4109.7101.92.4196.863.0103.3104.0105.498.5103.999.999.2196.536.54.21.13.52.42.32.94.55.62.11.54.05.90.3-0.1-0.91.01.22.1-3.13.97.71.93.99.52.60.15.54.22.76.31.94.794.953.356.555.94.96.115.441.276.530.94.282.862.393.883.692.246.014.242.89147.98158.6098.88-2.1-2.2-1.3-0.2-2.4-0.5 199.268.380.2685.91 206.768.076.9382.10 211.263.172.8477.84 219.560.773.6778.69 213.167.773.7778.57 214.055.0 177.947.5 172.749.074.6379.65 215.259.775.1280.10 254.656.577.4182.67 256.754.178.3984.03 254.045.479.8685.28 255.349.1 264.246.4 266.453.579.8684.46 217.052.380.1885.92 208.661.079.4884.98 195.461.080.3386.16 191.964.181.3187.63 178.256.9 177.768.6 203.069.981.6288.19 210.867.780.1386.13 179.759.280.1586.12 174.456.081.0187.47 173.052.979.6886.66 176.956.5 171.645.0 150.233.777.9084.90 155.731.878.8784.49 84.6136.2103.8159.537.497.798.699.197.497.2103.776.4182.8499.2097.286.24.41.13.52.12.33.34.14.92.11.23.94.2-0.5-0.7-1.20.40.82.2-2.44.17.11.83.78.52.7-0.26.24.42.76.11.96.265.382.275.34.75.916.741.274.730.94.633.232.733.602.23141.59145.9699.08 166.549.075.8882.17 167.354.673.3979.94 165.050.9 143.856.7 148.263.874.1180.99 153.361.077.1483.69 153.758.178.4785.09 155.651.778.0684.50 153.154.879.7286.39 156.061.8 150.358.9 126.847.980.1486.61 113.441.479.0685.58 123.035.678.5985.38 137.930.478.4985.14 137.618.976.3483.00 143.011.9 150.417.0 153.417.076.3484.07 147.623.576.1683.05 138.123.573.9580.60 132.620.575.3982.21 130.123.276.3283.16 115.134.0 111.438.1 118.045.475.6882.45 121.145.277.0583.89 100.1127.5122.1111.454.099.5100.8101.9101.596.590.277.6984.3199.4298.945.44.11.12.91.02.63.63.65.11.61.33.63.2-1.2-1.30.0-1.00.62.6-1.64.36.52.03.28.52.8-1.26.84.72.75.51.96.135.512.504.34.25.719.841.273.530.94.142.892.573.422.23140.36152.4999.38 106.860.078.1684.75 108.060.479.6885.83 116.253.0 122.840.7 116.244.380.4686.18 117.654.777.5883.29 116.462.476.6682.66 107.062.375.7281.59 119.259.276.6882.78 119.562.6 110.562.7 132.361.874.8080.77 155.857.071.3377.45 170.760.867.6173.69 185.379.968.3574.70 196.295.166.7472.97 191.394.8 215.192.0 204.395.667.6473.79 181.690.169.3375.32 189.572.970.9076.69 189.247.969.9675.91 177.744.269.2674.99 186.156.3 176.564.9 173.858.772.8178.12 176.258.973.2078.65 162.261.872.9778.28 145.374.474.3779.27 142.371.975.6779.77 94.9111.7106.2140.059.698.196.1104.696.398.897.099.9097.575.54.61.13.01.42.53.73.44.51.41.33.52.8-0.9-0.90.5-1.1-0.22.1-1.33.95.50.73.010.02.4-1.77.44.22.75.31.96.145.133.867.554.34.15.521.641.270.430.93.792.742.663.543.292.215.093.932.89143.27142.0599.59-1.8-1.7-1.0-0.1-2.1-0.3 180.260.2 181.663.780.4284.93 187.467.380.7184.94 184.564.480.6184.99 177.855.180.7085.12 165.255.880.7085.12 166.249.3 135.040.1 129.629.279.7484.18 129.819.181.5385.61 130.015.983.2687.33 164.422.082.1686.09 160.118.282.5286.31 148.421.7 159.324.6 148.924.680.8384.76 153.924.680.8684.77 156.930.679.1683.12 131.721.277.2981.10 144.424.477.8781.66 154.427.4 130.530.0 146.030.078.7682.73 134.142.977.0780.77 135.136.874.3077.69 144.245.374.7678.37 140.442.276.7879.54 137.335.6 150.232.9 87.3101.9103.3195.340.3101.399.0104.6100.896.1100.075.6679.3199.8298.454.83.41.12.30.72.42.63.34.71.21.13.93.1-1.9-1.70.8-2.1-0.41.4-2.83.26.00.83.19.22.4-1.77.83.72.75.41.96.145.074.043.33.65.222.441.267.730.93.882.952.643.122.18141.75134.1499.54 217.140.571.6675.32 217.952.668.6072.33 209.760.068.5672.50 210.857.171.3475.30 209.764.3 200.776.5 181.295.373.1677.01 167.595.873.7177.44 156.495.472.5676.41 164.382.470.8774.98 178.481.670.0474.17 204.285.2 210.170.3 176.550.871.1175.23 161.443.470.8674.91 168.359.472.8376.96 177.168.071.8675.86 164.672.971.5575.58 157.869.0 179.774.6 227.167.871.9975.99 241.365.072.9176.84 271.040.174.3478.36 275.337.571.8376.26 292.530.272.6776.95 284.326.7 270.629.3 220.241.672.6777.07 213.045.069.4673.54 207.242.168.0972.66 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