Markets Look Beyond the Headline https://www.banqueducanada.ca/?p=202488 Inflation_Headline only Average R² Inflation_Headline and non-headline Average R² Retail sales_Headline only Average R² Retail sales_Headline and non-headline Average R² GDP_Headline only Average R² GDP_Headline and non-headline Average R² Employment_Headline only Average R² Employment_Headline and non-headline Average R² Inflation_Headline 2-year rolling R² with headline surprises only Inflation_Non-headline 2-year rolling R² with headline surprises only Retail sales_Headline 2-year rolling R² with headline surprises only Retail sales_Non-headline 2-year rolling R² with headline surprises only GDP_Headline 2-year rolling R² with headline surprises only GDP_Non-headline 2-year rolling R² with headline surprises only Employment_Headline 2-year rolling R² with headline surprises only Employment_Non-headline 2-year rolling R² with headline surprises only Inflation 2-year rolling R² with both headline and non-headline surprises Retail sales 2-year rolling R² with both headline and non-headline surprises GDP 2-year rolling R² with both headline and non-headline surprises Employment 2-year rolling R² with both headline and non-headline surprises Inflation 2-year rolling R² with both headline and non-headline surprises Retail sales 2-year rolling R² with both headline and non-headline surprises GDP 2-year rolling R² with both headline and non-headline surprises Employment 2-year rolling R² with both headline and non-headline surprises 20.0552002.31290024.56440032.05050042.87690033.08290064.19300062.074600 21.0526002.69720017.54240032.08760045.70520033.63940063.67330062.521500 18.4046002.06710017.01890032.35170046.59470031.92230063.12790062.525200 19.7876001.77780016.70610032.46730050.12590031.39390063.24660059.070000 10.0392002.00190016.56670032.30710033.97280032.17850062.63210059.212900 13.9704001.65500016.23090032.19330037.50210032.61440062.68710056.352500 14.4710006.89070017.86140032.03680038.96410037.44500061.11900057.444800 16.5054007.00980016.28620028.39080046.50940037.63900063.51400054.122700 20.2107007.25110016.72930026.91460055.15870037.75580064.27290054.150000 18.3734006.54820014.31380033.60920053.64000038.40260064.01370059.870900 14.3940006.14470013.20720033.07470047.28960038.33630059.95860059.880900 16.49020010.89570012.64570038.65180048.50600043.07250060.45750064.440100 17.91720012.3761006.42930039.48460051.84280043.22720055.33620064.861000 19.45170012.7818006.54560035.16370052.24960042.13460058.53210062.083100 22.87030013.8657002.67110035.66120058.29490043.36640058.08990062.385600 24.25190014.0194003.20880044.31640060.29620046.26880062.06140077.743300 20.46650017.5262003.52350044.39410064.03810047.62970062.88720078.047300 24.45530022.3246004.73310043.79330064.05200051.25480064.66460077.660500 25.67530025.01320012.62430043.71770065.38670055.98100066.28970077.662600 30.25220034.40170012.50720042.20220066.99030059.24030067.70780077.459500 40.80310036.43720012.94790046.65880071.60260061.93390068.72320078.619700 45.38450036.66790012.17250051.85220073.06870061.47940067.43420077.970000 51.90960035.21630011.80780049.78420076.25910060.22750067.31570077.495200 50.33510033.33910017.22120051.47050076.54050059.58020071.77980078.853300 44.91150031.92860017.72040045.29690078.18090057.01220071.29910070.105800 45.40670032.03890031.77990045.96480077.61980056.16800072.47350070.209000 47.89040031.75930030.46580047.38920081.19000056.17970073.65260071.199700 47.70430032.90590025.20380050.36960080.30960061.97570071.21300071.828100 49.79950032.28600024.53010051.79720080.31910060.21420071.53890071.564600 38.79900033.52490021.24230049.47200081.46880061.15710071.33150071.217000 38.81470034.04580018.23200049.30150081.55900061.75860069.09650071.455700 37.15910034.10660019.52400050.98150078.26410062.16990069.93030070.056200 37.60790030.11160024.27470053.64410074.96220065.50030069.11210070.558100 39.59730029.48810024.22530050.04760077.40400066.19050073.38480069.074300 40.61630027.71840027.93870051.28610078.58200066.60220077.46080070.591200 40.64120019.09040027.71110041.80460079.08810061.47900077.50640062.798700 40.83690017.80010032.38180040.79420077.24160061.45020078.07170058.090300 39.42980017.28810033.02880028.97040077.36470059.54260076.43070054.753200 39.65470017.15020033.97290032.35270077.28660060.59110079.32760058.428900 40.12600019.32290032.85380030.55250078.00020062.78760080.65040058.419900 40.10440019.37690032.66380033.57380077.18750063.14700080.63990061.092300 41.58980021.01300032.47400034.29640077.64930063.82680080.15760062.138000 41.16430016.03700026.88310033.66490077.54650059.01910080.94600062.110200 39.51050016.72940026.05260035.00740078.16330056.56270081.29100062.440600 30.98830014.93100027.38710039.53860074.70280056.32530081.62950064.949300 32.03150016.65800028.45280040.90030073.99570059.29910082.99900066.404800 20.60650016.00040029.11000039.92750063.69030060.23550083.07000064.315900 14.01150011.82740019.37970035.31180063.51330055.73560081.47030060.736300 19.28540014.79320020.53720039.94770059.70570058.50640081.67890069.429900 16.02610014.85750023.81070035.41380061.13280058.00980079.53910069.887900 12.40190015.05770021.69690034.12710050.69460065.93390079.34740069.430600 10.71810017.12610027.29880029.52110050.88290058.04900083.64870064.859000 10.54870017.88140026.47250026.79160052.18570059.52580083.16020066.712600 20.07840017.07340026.22340033.47730054.36860058.12800082.14760070.983300 19.46970017.18270021.56600032.32260053.95300057.43850082.14990069.517000 21.7861007.36040022.25120030.12410060.48670054.71980082.06500068.506300 23.83340011.36530015.54400028.20920059.84400061.23410078.74330067.694700 25.32340010.8836005.70850026.08920060.98150058.43520069.11800067.150000 31.89670010.9798004.68210029.32930068.47490058.98950062.53090070.746000 32.35640011.1016003.63300030.17700068.82400067.81670061.69350071.150100 32.18600010.8584002.87050030.34610070.41790066.71100062.57700072.069800 31.8275009.5394004.06430038.39420069.74880067.12120063.40700072.784200 31.5486009.3381001.82910034.37570069.72300067.01530061.66530070.960700 31.7091009.1215002.28130036.40370070.06180065.79220062.81830074.204900 29.6913008.9140001.25560032.69070070.00570065.65610058.45050072.952100 26.6925008.2378006.70040031.25650069.14560065.15930071.22280072.325900 27.0268009.6502008.47090032.31950064.51260061.70640059.50290073.292200 29.24980012.74760011.06720028.14620067.18100062.34040063.06380067.783300 31.49340015.54830011.01910025.11770067.33190062.64940061.31680064.585700 26.22250022.96080021.37790024.83030063.64520066.04630065.11170064.043300 18.50570022.04340025.19910027.04130064.37180063.15630069.50580068.895400 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